In risk management, what does a likelihood assessment evaluate?

A likelihood assessment focuses on evaluating the probability that a specific threat will successfully exploit a vulnerability within an organization's systems or processes. By determining how likely it is for a threat to occur, risk management professionals can prioritize risks and allocate resources more effectively to mitigate those risks. This assessment is crucial for identifying which vulnerabilities are most pressing and require immediate attention, allowing organizations to take proactive measures in their security posture.

While evaluating the potential consequences of a risk or assessing the financial impact of a security breach plays a significant role in the risk management process, these elements focus on the aftermath of an incident rather than the likelihood of occurrence. Similarly, analyzing the effectiveness of current security measures is about understanding how well existing defenses work, rather than estimating the probability of a threat materializing. Thus, the likelihood assessment is specifically tied to measuring the chances of a threat exploiting a vulnerability, making it an essential component of comprehensive risk management.